Mass shooters don’t just strike out. Whether it’s changes in their behavior or personality, comments or jokes about self-harm and violence, or an obsession with past mass shootings and their perpetrators, they leave a trail of warning signs that can last for years.
That’s according to Shohini Sinha, the special agent in charge of the FBI Field Office in Salt Lake City, who briefed reporters Monday on the agency’s new Prevent Mass Violence campaign, which details the behavior often displayed by those who carry out mass shootings and other violent incidents on a large scale.
The number of mass casualty events, defined by the National Institutes of Health as a disaster, man-made or natural, that overwhelms local management agencies and the health care system, is increasing, Sinha said.
In deliberate, man-made incidents, the perpetrator often shows clear warning signs, Sinha said.
“Active shooters, mass shooters, don’t just shoot. They think, they plan, they prepare for their attacks over time, sometimes years. Often, people around them see what’s happening,” she said.
Making comments and jokes about self-harm, suicide, violent thoughts, plans or fantasies are among the red flags, she said — as are changes in vocabulary or personality in a way that “reflects a hardened stance or new sense of purpose associated with violent extremist goals.”
“Unusual” difficulty coping with stress, seeing violence as a solution to problems, isolating from friends and family, and obsessing about previous attacks or attackers are also on the FBI’s list of worrisome behaviors.
“If you notice someone doing any of these things, it’s important that you talk to someone you trust,” Sinha said. “What’s important is that you tell someone, because we can’t do anything about it if we don’t know.”
There’s no behavior unique to Utah or the Mountain West that you need to watch out for, she told reporters. When asked about incidents that have occurred locally, Sinha pointed to an active shooter situation in May 2023, in which Salt Lake City police responded to 17th South River Park.
According to a probable cause affidavit filed in Utah’s 3rd District Court, Steven Matthew Macias admitted to drinking alcohol in the park and then shooting and wounding one of the men he was with.
According to court documents, Macias then began shooting into a crowd watching a soccer game. He admitted he was aware of the people around him and was not paying attention. He struck a bystander in the chest, seriously injuring him.
During his interrogation by officers, Macias admitted to shooting his neighbor in Texas in January 2023 because he upset him, the affidavit said.
According to court records, Macias was charged with 25 crimes, though most were dropped after he took a plea deal. In June, he was sentenced to five years to life in Utah State Prison for two counts of discharging a firearm. He also faces charges in Texas in connection with the death of his neighbor.
Another 2021 incident is more of a success story: Following a tip from the FBI, the Weber County Sheriff’s Office arrested a 15-year-old Weber High School student who planned to make explosives and shoot people in what it called “a Columbine-style mass casualty event,” the Standard-Examiner reported.
“I need guns. And I need bullets. And I need alcohol. And I need bombs. … And I need to kill all the f—-,” the girl wrote in her diary, according to the Standard-Examiner. She also described her plans via text message, telling someone that the shooting would be her way of “making my mark on society.”
Such rhetoric is almost exactly what the FBI uses in its awareness campaign. It references past attacks like Columbine, sets out a plan, and frames violence as a means to an end.
That behavior is a common thread in most cases of mass violence around the world, said Sinha, who worked in the FBI’s counterterrorism division and served in places such as Guantanamo Bay and Baghdad.
“The indicators are not specific to one specific motivation or ideology. So you could take that list that I read out and overlay it with someone who is motivated by international terrorism, or domestic terrorism, or just violence,” she said.
The FBI receives thousands of tips about potential mass shooters. Some are credible, but many are not, and Sinha described the process as a “science and an art.”
Investigators first review all available information. If it meets the attorney general’s guidelines, the FBI launches an investigation, often looking at open-source information like social media, to determine whether the person is “kind of deluded and saying things that aren’t proven, or if they actually pose a threat,” Sinha said.
If you suspect someone is planning violence, contact your local police or FBI office, or report it at tips.fbi.gov.
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