(WASHINGTON) — Unless President Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential race, it is virtually impossible under party rules for another candidate to earn the Democratic nomination. And even if he does leave, confirming a replacement would be tricky.
Biden’s debate performance on Thursday sent political observers, including some Democrats, into a frenzy, sparking debate over the possibility of replacing Biden as party leader in November.
Biden — who has insisted he wants to stay in the race — will soon be formally nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee. Biden will be nominated at a virtual convention between July 21 and Aug. 7, party officials decided during a vote last month — a move that resolves a conflict over election deadlines in Ohio that has complicated the president’s access to the ballot in that state. It also puts the virtual convention ahead of the party’s in-person convention on Aug. 19.
If Biden remains in the race, there is only one real option to forcibly oust him as the nominee at this point: have more than 1,976 of the more than 3,894 individuals already selected to be Biden’s pledged delegates abstain from voting for him on the first ballot during the Democratic National Committee’s virtual nominating process. Then there would be a “brokered convention” of sorts, with the unpledged delegates involved in additional rounds of voting.
But there are several reasons why this scenario would be far-fetched, including the will of the delegates and the technicalities of various party rules.
Longtime members of the party who have worked closely on writing rule changes in the past tell ABC News that they have actively discussed how it would work to change the rules if the nominee had to be replaced. And some DNC and state party members have argued that a delegate selection of the nominee, in the event of an open convention, would be grossly undemocratic because voters would not be involved in the process at this stage.
If Biden stays in the race
Most of Biden’s delegates, who were finalized after the June 22 selection process was completed, were chosen on a state-by-state basis as the president’s top supporters and are unlikely to change their support, according to interviews between ABC News and national and regional party leaders, along with seven individual delegates.
“That’s not even a topic of conversation,” said Aaron Sims, a Biden representative from Nevada, about changing his vote from Biden.
“We were a little concerned about (his debate), but we think he’s run a great campaign so far. You know, we’re four months away from the election, and the idea of changing — going to someone who’s completely new and we have to introduce them to the country would just be such a clusterfuck that I don’t think it’s feasible. I think … we would actually lose the election if we did that,” Sims added.
Technically, however, there is still a chance that one of these representatives could change their mind.
“I still support President Biden so far,” Sami Khaldi, a Biden representative from Michigan, told ABC News.
But Khaldi added that he is “absolutely monitoring the situation very closely.”
“If he does much better on the campaign trail, and we see that he’s still a strong candidate, I’ll support him. Otherwise, we’ll have another conversation later with the rest of the Democratic Party.”
Unlike Republican delegates, Democratic delegates are “pledged” rather than “bound” to a candidate, and party rules say that delegates must “in good conscience” reflect the views of those who elected them. There is no official penalty if a delegate votes otherwise.
The party could vote at one of its upcoming committee meetings to create some sort of punishment for pledged delegates who don’t support Biden. But so far, there will be no punishment.
If a Biden representative skips the first round of voting instead of supporting the president, his vote simply won’t count.
But if that delegate supports another candidate — or even former candidate Dean Phillips, who got three delegates from Ohio, or Jason Palmer, who got three delegates from American Samoa — their votes would simply be counted as “present.”
That’s because Biden is currently the only candidate officially eligible for nomination, the party said, basing its decision on party rules that will be officially adopted on August 19.
One of the rules requires that a presidential candidate “have secured substantial support for his nomination” and have a proven track record as a Democrat loyal to the interests of the party. The rule states that the candidate must publicly certify — in writing — that he is a Democrat, along with all other necessary state-level eligibility requirements. That written certification must also be accepted by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee.
Another rule reflects that sentiment, along with the requirement that the candidate be registered to vote and that he was registered in the last election. It also means that the candidate must be a bona fide Democrat “as determined by the National Chairperson” of the DNC.
The temporary rules also state that each nomination request must be accompanied by a petition with between 300 and 600 delegate signatures, no more than 50 of which can come from any one delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one petition — more than 99% of delegates have already committed to Biden, so they would not be able to nominate another candidate.
If there were more “present” votes than Biden votes, the possibility of a “brokered” convention (albeit virtual, as there will be voting) would arise. This would occur because Biden would not be able to secure a majority of pledged delegates on the first ballot.
However, the party does not know who to replace him, as there is currently no other candidate eligible for nomination.
Once again, thousands of these pledged delegates would have to rebel to have any influence on Biden’s nomination.
“I don’t expect there to be a real groundswell of opposition at the convention. I mean, he’s got 99 percent of the pledged delegates. It would take, you know, thousands of delegates all coming together and turning against him, against the sitting president of the United States,” Derek Muller, a voting law expert and professor at Notre Dame, told ABC News.
And because Biden’s nomination will now happen even sooner (before the in-person party convention that begins Aug. 19) — and virtually — Muller said the chance of real opposition is even smaller.
“To the extent that they do that any sooner and continue to adhere to that process, I think it’s just very unlikely that it would produce anyone other than Biden. Again, I think it would really require him to resign voluntarily, for most — for any of these serious scenarios to realistically play out,” Muller said.
If Biden withdraws
If Biden were to drop out of the race before the nomination — without a rule change — many delegates allocated to Biden would likely go into the Democratic convention with no obligations, said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a member of the DNC.
These delegates would not automatically go to Vice President Kamala Harris. The presidential and vice presidential ballots were separated at the Democratic convention.
Individual delegates would suddenly have a lot of influence over who their party nominates.
Harris — as Biden’s running mate — would be a logical, even likely, destination for many Democratic delegates if Biden does indeed withdraw from the race.
Lara Brown, a political scientist and author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants,” told ABC News in January that she doesn’t believe the Democratic convention would be the only contested item if Biden were to die. There could be a symbolic first round of voting for Biden, “then (the convention) could essentially create a point of order … and then have a second round of voting,” likely for Harris as the nominee, Brown said.
But other options remain possible, such as top governors and members of Congress or Biden’s Cabinet.
There is still an ambiguity here, however: no candidate other than Biden is officially eligible for nomination without a change in party rules.
ABC News’ MaryAlice Parks and Oren Oppenheim contributed to this report.
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