NASCAR Playoff Bubble Heats Up with Six Races RemainingNASCAR Playoff Bubble Heats Up with Six Races Remaining With just six races remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the playoff bubble is heating up. Twelve drivers have won the first 20 races of 2024, leaving only four playoff spots up for grabs. Current Playoff Bubble (Top 16 Make Playoffs): * 13. Martin Truex Jr., +125 * 14. Ty Gibbs, +84 * 15. Ross Chastain, +53 * 16. Chris Buescher, +45 Contenders for the Remaining Spots: * Martin Truex Jr.: Truex, with a 125-point cushion, appears to be in a comfortable position. However, three first-time winners could eliminate him without a victory of his own. * Ty Gibbs: After a hot start, Gibbs has cooled off recently. He’ll need to rediscover his form to secure a playoff berth. * Ross Chastain: Chastain has struggled in 2024, but his previous success suggests he could make a late push for a playoff spot. * Chris Buescher: Buescher has had chances to clinch a playoff spot, but missed opportunities have left him vulnerable. Underdogs to Watch: * Bubba Wallace: Wallace, who made the playoffs in 2023, could potentially make it again from below the cut line. * Kyle Busch: The former champion needs a win to jump into the playoffs. * Chase Briscoe: Briscoe has shown speed but has yet to break through for a victory. * Michael McDowell: McDowell is a dark horse who could surprise with a win. Conclusion: The pressure is mounting as the playoffs approach. Teams will need to handle the intensity of the chase for a championship spot. While Truex, Gibbs, Chastain, and Buescher have the best chances, don’t be surprised if an underdog emerges with a win and upsets the playoff picture.
NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. is introduced prior to the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, Tennessee, Sunday, June 30, 2024.
If you’re looking for the song that best describes the upcoming six races of the NASCAR Cup Series, look no further than the 1981 hit “Under Pressure.”
Twelve drivers have won the first 20 races of 2024, leaving just four playoff spots with six regular-season races remaining. There are 22 other drivers vying for those spots, so there’s no round left that doesn’t impact who makes it to the postseason.
Let’s take a look at the drivers who are in the play-off stage and see which four have the best chances of joining their peers and fighting for the championship.
Current Playoff Bubble (Top 16 Make Playoffs):
13. Martin Truex Jr., +125
14. Ty Gibbs, +84
15. Ross Chastain, +53
16. Chris Buescher, +45
17. Bubba Wallace, -45
18. Chase Briscoe, -88
19. Kyle Busch, -98
20. Todd Gilliland, -121
The current play-off bubble may not seem all that exciting, but one win by a driver lower than 16th place would make the points battle at the end of the race incredibly exciting.
Truex may be the least stressed about his situation, as 125 points seems like a solid cushion. If there were three first-time winners for 2024, a winless Truex would be the last man standing. Four or more new drivers in victory lane over the next six weeks, and Truex would suddenly be out of the playoff picture.
The season is shaping up to be a similar one to 2022 for Truex, where he was among the top five drivers in the regular-season standings but missed the postseason after failing to score a single win. In a system where winning trumps everything, consistency is rarely rewarded on the big stage. If Truex doesn’t score a win in the next six races, he could be eliminated again.
Just below Truex is Ty Gibbs, his 21-year-old teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing. After a hot start, Gibbs has cooled off considerably over the summer. A third-place finish in Chicago was a much-needed result for the No. 54 Toyota team, which has speed but lacks the big-game experience needed in high-pressure situations.
Just below Gibbs is Ross Chastain, who suddenly declared himself a championship contender when he signed with Trackhouse Racing in 2022. After four wins in two seasons, including a Championship Four appearance in 2022, Chastain has struggled in 2024. On the rare occasions when he has had winning speed, incidents in the final race have relegated him to last place. It may take a little more magic — see Martinsville 2022 — for Chastain to clinch a playoff spot.
If you were wondering why Chris Buescher was so upset after his losses to Kansas and Darlington earlier in the season, here’s why. After winning three times in 2023, Buescher would have been assured of a playoff spot if either race went his way. Instead, he now finds himself just 45 points behind with a hungry field trying to chase him down.
So, of the drivers who already have points, who has the best chance to make the 16-driver field? Most seem to think Truex has the upper hand, as the veteran not only has the biggest points advantage but also has experience under pressure when a big performance is needed. That also goes for Chastain, who will be looking for another late title run. Gibbs and Buescher are certainly capable of making the field and have a good chance, as a win is likely needed for every driver below 16th in the playoff picture. However, there could be a lot of nail-biting in the No. 17 and No. 54 camps.
As for the drivers below the cut line, Wallace is probably the only driver with a realistic chance of making his way in. The good news? Wallace was able to make his way into the 2023 playoffs, even advancing to the second round.
The bad news? Wallace did so from above the cut line, and he’s been terribly unlucky when given opportunities for huge points days in 2024. Seventh- and 13th-place finishes in the last two races are a good sign, but 45 points is a steep climb for a No. 23 team that consistently falls short.
The remaining 17 drivers eligible for the postseason all need a win, barring a miraculous run of races in which they consistently score 50-plus points. Don’t look past drivers like Busch, Briscoe or Michael McDowell to take a win in the final six races, and don’t be surprised to see a huge underdog — like Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Daniel Hemric or Zane Smith — win at Daytona.
But with the play-off bubble stretched longer than usual, it would be surprising to see more than one driver from below the cut line jump into the 16-driver field.
This much is certain: the pressure is on for the next six races. Teams that can handle the intensity of a playoff spot will have a chance to fight for a championship, while those that wilt in the heat will be seen in an unfavorable light.
–Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media
