Analysis: Biden and Trump Facing Health Concerns, Could Sway Independent VotersAnalysis: Biden and Trump Facing Health Concerns, Could Sway Independent Voters According to a new analysis from Resonate, a significant portion of Americans are concerned about the health and fitness of both President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. While this concern may not significantly impact Democratic or Republican voters, it could potentially influence independent voters. The analysis suggests that approximately 37 million voters are more concerned about Biden’s health than Trump’s. This poses a potential risk for Biden, particularly among independent and unaffiliated voters. Resonate’s analysis differs from traditional polls in that it utilizes AI modeling to gather insights on a vast dataset of 250 million individuals. This dataset includes detailed information on demographics, psychographics, and decision-making patterns. Despite concerns about health, traditional polls also indicate a slight shift in voter preferences. A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Trump leading Biden by a margin of 41% to 38%. Notably, a similar poll conducted before the June 27 debate showed the candidates tied at 37%. The analysis also raises concerns about Biden’s position as the Democratic front-runner, with 41% of Democrats expressing a desire for a replacement. The extent to which concerns about health and fitness will influence voter choices in November remains uncertain. However, these concerns could have a significant impact on independent voters, who may be more likely to favor Biden if they perceive Trump’s health as a greater risk.
Millions of Americans are “very concerned” about the health and fitness of President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to a new analysis from Resonate.
However, those concerns are likely to weigh more heavily on some 5 million independent voters who may be more likely to favor Biden in November, the AI-based consumer data and intelligence company wrote Thursday.
Resonate published a report exclusively for USA TODAY shortly before Biden held a press conference in which he hoped to convince more Americans that his debate performance two weeks ago was an anomaly. Trump is days away from accepting the Republican nomination at the national convention.
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Resonate’s process differs from typical polls, which extrapolate the pulse of American voters based on a few hundred or thousand responses. The company uses its AI modeling engine to develop insights on roughly 250 million people. The vast dataset contains more than 4 trillion bits of information that create a detailed profile of everything from demographics and psychographics to why people make the decisions they do.
“Resonate’s cutting-edge technology delivers the most comprehensive, up-to-date insight into any audience at scale,” said Ericka McCoy, Resonate’s chief marketing officer, in an email. “We’ve successfully forecast the last two presidential elections, all the way down to key states like Michigan and Florida.”
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It’s not my candidate. It’s yours.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Republicans and Democrats are divided over which candidate’s health and fitness we should be concerned about. If you voted for Biden in 2020, you’re likely “very concerned” about Trump’s health, and vice versa.
Also unsurprising: Even intense concerns about health and fitness wouldn’t move the needle for Democrats or Republicans, Resonate predicts. However, independent votes could be swayed for and against both candidates.
Resonate estimates that 37 million voters are more concerned about Biden’s health than Trump’s. The analysis says this poses “a significant risk to Biden, particularly among independent and unaffiliated voters.”
The extent to which both candidates’ concerns about their health and fitness will influence voters’ choices in November is still up for debate, but traditional polls also suggest a slight shift has taken place.
After Biden’s weak debate performance, Trump took a lead — though not a decisive one — in a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted by landline and cellphone.
In a similar USA TODAY/Suffolk poll conducted in May, the candidates were tied at 37% of the vote. After the June 27 debate, the June 28-June 30 poll tilted in Trump’s favor 41-38.
Another finding from the poll raised further doubts about Biden and possibly the election: 41% of Democrats said they wanted Biden replaced as the Democratic front-runner.
Contributors: Susan Page, Rachel Barber
