At Red Bull they look back nervously at the start of the summer break in Formula 1

Belgian Grand Prix Upended Formula 1 SeasonBelgian Grand Prix Upended Formula 1 Season The Belgian Grand Prix marked a significant shift in the competitive landscape of Formula 1. The race saw a four-team battle for victory, with the outcome remaining uncertain until the final lap. Max Verstappen, previously dominant, could only manage fourth place. Competitive Revolution Verstappen’s dominance has ended, attributed to a resurgence from McLaren and Mercedes. McLaren’s major upgrade in May triggered a competitive turnaround, closing the gap between teams. The current technical regulations have allowed other teams to catch up and exploit loopholes in Red Bull’s design. Verstappen’s Diminished Dominance Verstappen’s qualifying performances reflect his diminished dominance. His average lead over the fastest non-Red Bull car has decreased significantly. In the past nine circuits, he has claimed pole position only three times. Title Race Still Open Despite his recent setbacks, Verstappen remains in a strong position for a fourth world title. No other driver has consistently challenged him, and McLaren’s Lando Norris has been making mistakes. Verstappen’s lead in the World Championship standings stands at 78 points. Nervousness for Red Bull Red Bull is concerned about their position in the Constructors’ Championship, where McLaren is closing in. Sergio Pérez, Verstappen’s teammate, has been struggling and could be replaced before the Dutch Grand Prix. Conclusion The Belgian Grand Prix demonstrated the competitive revolution in Formula 1. Verstappen’s dominance has waned, and the season has become wide open. McLaren and Mercedes are surging, and Red Bull needs a strong performance from Pérez to protect Verstappen in the second half of the season.

The Belgian Grand Prix could not have been a better symbol of the upheaval in the first half of the Formula 1 season. A race in which four teams fought for the prizes, in which the battle for victory remained exciting until the last lap – and in which Max Verstappen, no matter how hard he tried, could only get as far as fourth place.

For Verstappen, it was as if the race at Spa-Francorchamps, the rolling and fast circuit through the Ardennes where he loves to drive, was a kind of controlled laboratory test to test his dominance. Just like in the previous two editions, he had to start in the midfield due to a grid penalty. But where in 2022 and 2023 he overtook everyone within a few laps and won comfortably, he now had to tolerate drivers from three other teams in front of him in his Red Bull.

Just four months ago, the F1 season seemed over before it had even begun. In one dull race after another, Verstappen claimed victory. But now, after a turnaround that Formula 1 rarely sees, his dominance is over for now.

The cause of the competitive revolution lies in the race that takes place off the track; between the engineers in the factories of the F1 teams. They work all year on parts to make their cars faster. The designers of Red Bull are less successful in this than those of McLaren and Mercedes in particular.

The latter team seemed to have definitively joined the battle between Red Bull and McLaren in Spa. Unexpectedly, Mercedes drivers George Russel and Lewis Hamilton finished first and second, after Russell had perfectly executed a daring one-stop strategy and managed to keep his teammate behind him in the closing stages. However, Russell was disqualified because his car was later found to be too light. Hamilton inherited the victory, Verstappen climbed from fifth to fourth place.

Copying clever tricks

It’s an effect that often occurs in Formula 1: the longer a particular version of the technical regulations is in force, the smaller the gaps become. The chasers iron out the wrinkles in their cars and copy a few clever tricks from the leader, who in the meantime discovers as he develops that even a brilliant design concept has its limits. But no one expected Red Bull – which has best interpreted the current rules, which came into force in 2022 – to be overtaken so quickly.

Since McLaren brought a major upgrade to Miami in early May, and immediately took victory with Lando Norris, the battle is wide open again. The differences at the front are so small that the final ranking is different on every circuit and depends on countless variables: from the track temperature to a new layer of asphalt that has been laid down by chance, as in Spa. The drivers and their race engineers must succeed in setting up their car perfectly. Previously, Verstappen had such a large margin that he could still win if his car did not feel fantastic, now he can forget that.

Verstappen’s qualifying results are perhaps the best indicator of his diminished dominance. He claimed pole position at the first five circuits of the season, with an average lead of 0.37 percent over the fastest non-Red Bull, by F1 standards (because each circuit has a different lap time, percentages are a better measure than seconds). At the next nine circuits, that gap shrank to 0.05 percent, and he qualified first only three more times.

Verstappen has now failed to win four Grands Prix in a row for the first time since late 2020. But without his exceptional driving skills, he could have lost even more races. He won in Imola and Barcelona, ​​despite not having the fastest car. And in the rain, when the differences between the cars matter less, Verstappen remains untouchable. Like on Saturday during the wet qualifying in Spa, where he left the rest of the field far behind. Although he did not have the fastest car in Spa either, it is quite possible that Verstappen would have won even without his grid penalty.

Nervous

Despite everything, Verstappen doesn’t have to worry too much about his fourth world title. While the champion was faltering, there was no challenger who could take all the World Championship points from him. Instead, six other drivers won races. Meanwhile, number two Lando Norris and his team McLaren make mistakes almost every race. Also in Belgium: Norris lost time due to steering and braking errors and his pit stop strategy was not exactly optimal. He saw Verstappen’s lead grow to 78 points.

Red Bull is nervously looking back at the Constructors’ Championship, where McLaren has closed the gap to 43 points. The big obstacle is Verstappen’s teammate, the Mexican Sergio Pérez. He crashed a few times in a row during qualifying and has not finished higher than seventh for months. In Spa he even started second again – only to anonymously fall back and finish far behind Verstappen in seventh. At times Pérez was almost a second a lap slower.

Perez could have driven his last race in Spa. According to Red Bull CEO Helmut Marko, the team will decide soon whether to replace him during the summer break. Verstappen’s former teammate Daniel Ricciardo or New Zealand talent Liam Lawson could succeed him.

Whoever it is, Red Bull needs a driver who can stay close to Verstappen at the Dutch Grand Prix in four weeks’ time, to protect him during the race from attacks and ingenious pit stop strategies from the competition. After all, halfway through the 2024 season, it is clear that Verstappen could really use that help.

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