Just over 6% of the population, or 204,765, were receiving jobseeker support.
This compares with 12.4% of the population on benefits after the GFC, of which 2.6% were related to unemployment, 15.8% on benefits at the height of the Asian crisis, of which 6.6% were related to unemployment, and 16, 1% on benefits in the economic downturn in the early 1990s, of which 7.9% were on unemployment benefits.
On March 31, 1952, only two people received unemployment benefits.
In September, just over 6% of the population used support for jobseekers.
Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said the different numerical composition of benefits was likely due to the 2013 benefits reform.
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“After the GFC, unemployment rates were very low – if you could get one of the other benefits that were less rigorously controlled by Winz (Work and Income), life became easier,” Kiernan said.
“National’s reforms in 2013 meant almost everyone received one benefit with different extras where they applied.
“It appears that some lone parents still receive a separate payment, but only if the youngest child is under 14… So there will be a proportion of lone parents and probably a large proportion of people who were previously on sick pay who are now receiving support for job seekers and are classified as ready for work and therefore considered “unemployment related”.
At the height of the depression in the 1930s, approximately 6.6% of the working-age population participated in subsidized work programs or received government welfare, but this did not include women.
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Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen said it seemed unlikely that the percentage of people receiving benefits would reach 1990s levels.
“The fact that we are seeing unemployment rising is still not a good thing – above 5% is still not the area you want to be in, but it is still much better than after the GFC crisis or the economic hit of the 1990s.” .
Brad Olsen. Photo / Mark Mitchell
In the year ended December 2009, the unemployment rate was just over 6%.
“One of the challenges with the current economic downturn is that we have gone through a period of such extremes,” Olsen said.
“Let’s assume that before the pandemic things were normal – the pandemic broke out and the economy got very bad and we had to provide stimulus, but it worked so well that the economy got too high and generated excessive inflation, we had to get it back to normal.
“It ranges from a record low in history back to just above where we would like to see it. Hopefully over time things will return to a more normal Goldilocks position (not unbalanced or very weak).
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Olsen said some companies are reluctant to lay off workers after trying to hire as business picks up after the lockdown.
“When the economy recovered, there weren’t enough people to do the new work and they couldn’t rehire people because they had gone to Australia or wherever.”
The increase in the number of people receiving benefits due to health and disability has highlighted changes that have been taking place “behind the scenes”, he added.
“It’s unclear how this happened, there are many potential options – do people report their challenges more often, or is MSD more accepting of these challenges and therefore able to support people? Has there been a radical change in the type of pressure and stress people are under? There is no particularly good guide as to why these numbers have increased.”
– RNZ
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