The New York Mets have revitalized their season with tricks, hot streaks and star talent, but it’s almost certain that next year’s team won’t look like last summer.
Mets owner Steve Cohen has some tough financial decisions to make this winter, with a slew of players expected to hit the free agent market, including Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and many others.
With Cohen also missing the services of Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, that means there’s an extremely high chance that some players won’t return due to financial or roster construction constraints.
Let’s take a look at what top players won’t be returning to Citi Field next spring.
Pete Alonso, first base
Many Mets fans couldn’t stand Alonso for most of the season.
He was a formidable outfielder at first base (second percentile in reach and arm strength according to MLB Stats) and posted the worst OPS (.788) and WAR (2.6) of his career.
These aren’t encouraging numbers, especially considering Alonso will turn 30 in December and will likely sign a multi-year contract in the offseason.
While he saved a lot of face with his ninth-inning home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Wild Card Series and also pitched well in the postseason, it shouldn’t matter much when you look at the bigger picture.
New York would have to negotiate a commitment from one of the bigger names on the free agent market – Soto or Alex Bregman – to consider retiring Alonso, but that’s not out of the question for a team whose owner has no problem spending money.
Many people believe that Alonso will return to New York next season, but it would make much more sense to move Mark Vientos to first base and sign a star who is less likely to continue regressing.
Luis Severino, starting pitcher
The Mets allowing Severino to sign with another team has less to do with Severino than other free agent decisions.
New York will likely have Severino, Manaea and Quintana as free agents this offseason and cannot afford to lose all three.
But the Mets may not be able to afford to keep them all either.
As with Alonso, this is somewhat dependent on what happens with other free agents such as Burnes and potentially Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki.
If New York can make a splash by adding one of these big-name pitchers, Severino is the most realistic pitcher to not return.
Quintana will soon turn 36 and recently said he would like to come back for “one more chance” to win the World Series. This means that it would not only be affordable but also available on a short-term contract.
Manaea is projected to work fewer hours and make about the same annual salary as Severino, and considering he’s a left-handed pitcher and has better stats than Severino last season, signing him would be a priority.
This just leaves Severino as the odd man out, which might hurt some fans, but would be worth it if a top free agent took his place.
Harrison Bader, outfielder
If you were paying attention in the postseason, the writing was on the wall when it came to Bader.
After playing 143 games (402 at-bats) in the regular season, Bader played in 12 games (9 at-bats) in the playoffs, recording only one hit.
He wasn’t much better in the regular season either, posting a .284 on-base percentage and just 12 home runs.
He was also ineffective on the basepaths (17 of 25 on stolen bases).
While he was above average in every batting category, he was below average in every batting category according to MLB Statcast, and that simply isn’t good enough for a team with World Series aspirations.
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