A select number of states are preparing in full swing for the 2024 elections. (Photo: AP/GETTY/Katie Ingham)
“All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.”
Replace “animals” with “votes” and this quote from George Orwell’s Animal Farm becomes quite apt during the US election season. Especially considering that the book is a satire of the uncompromising hypocrisy of governments that claim to be equal and fair but hand over excessive power and privilege to an undeserving few.
But surely all votes in an election have the same value, right? And in a sense they are. But in another, slightly more accurate and realistic way, this is absolutely not the case. At least not when swing states are an unavoidably integral part of the democratic process. Welcome to American politics.
See? Not the least bit complicated… (EYES EMOJI) (Photo: Getty Images)
What exactly are “swing states”?
“Swing states,” also known by the much cooler name of “battleground states,” are those of the 50 United States where both major political parties have a real chance of winning a majority of voters in presidential elections.
Unlike fully Democratic or Republican states, which almost always lean toward one party or the other, swing states can – and very often do – swing (or “swing” – get it? Clever, huh…?) between choices, making them highly unpredictable.
It is their sheer uncertainty that gives them meaning and immense significance. Given that their electoral votes could determine the overall outcome of the election and determine who gets to enjoy all 55,000 square feet of the White House completely free of charge for four years.
Candidates tend to focus a lot of attention on these specific states, tailoring almost their entire presidential campaigns specifically to win over undecided or persuadable voters living there. Basically, real elections are held in swing states. Winning them seems to be the key to securing the presidency.
Only a few US states could decide the nation’s future… At least for the next four years (Photo: Getty Images)
Why do states even matter in the US presidential election?
Individual votes carry more weight in swing states because of their potential influence. This would not be the case if the outcome of the US presidential election was decided by a simple nationwide recount. But that’s not the case. America uses the “Electoral College” system to determine who can be called POTUS.
Here’s where it gets a little more complicated… Each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes based on that particular state’s representation in Congress (which is the number of senators plus the number of house members). There are a total of 538 electoral votes to be divided among the 50 states. A candidate needs 270 votes to win.
Most states use a winner-take-all approach to the system, meaning the candidate with the most votes in the state receives all of its electoral votes. Doing it this way really increases the importance of swing states, where the most subtle changes in voting can swing the outcome and mean significant electoral votes go one way or the other.
And you thought that choosing the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest was complicated.
The Republican Party hopes it has done enough to convince swing states to vote red on November 5 (Photo: Getty Images)
So which states are considered swingers?
Well, none of them. Nobody uses it this term to describe swing states. These considered important swing states can change over time, depending on voting patterns and demographics.
This time, there are seven states that both Democrats and Republicans say meet the criteria for being swingers – sorry, pendulum states. These are: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and, of course, Pennsylvania.
Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz are doing everything in their power to tip the scales in their favor (Photo: Getty Images)
How do swing states influence campaigns?
US presidential candidates are heavily targeting swing states, devoting much of their time, money and messaging to winning over undecided voters living there. Because these states can swing back and forth, candidates visit swing states much more often than non-swing states and tailor their platforms to appeal to key voter demographics within them. Campaigns devote countless resources to campaigns, advertising and information activities tailored to specific local issues.
Actually, not everything is so “untold”. Pennsylvania remains a major focus due to its historical importance in determining election results (Pennsylvania has managed to elect a winner in each of the last four elections, with a hit rate comparable to 10 of the last 12).
According to data provided by the American news website Axios, Kamala Harris AND Donald Trump they spent a total of $210 million on campaign fees in the Keystone State alone during this campaign. That’s more than twice what they spend on other swing state competitions.
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Gettysburg are key to both camps. Win the Pennsylvania vote live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s that simple.
All votes count and all votes are counted. That’s just it Some some of these voices prove to be more influential than others (Image: Getty Images)
Are they controversial?
Swing states appear to wield undue power in American elections because the Electoral College favors them over heavily partisan states. It’s almost as if they were rewarded for being on the fence together. Usually the only reward you get for sitting there is hate from the farmer or a splinter in your ass.
The bottom line is that campaigns are directing disproportionate attention and resources to a few key battlegrounds, often leaving voters in blue or red states feeling overlooked and ignored. This is why you will always hear calls for reform or the Electoral College and the abolition of swing states. To ensure that all voters have equal influence, regardless of where they live.
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But it never changes. And that tells you one thing… The powers that be are happy enough with how it works. Especially when their website benefits from it.
In the second week of November, the world will know which way America has gone (photo: Getty Images)
What can swing states tell us about what will happen this year?
Everything… Something… Maybe even nothing. Choose what you want!
The 2024 race is so incredibly close that no polls or pundits can offer anything beyond speculation. Over the years, we have seen many swing states swinging one way or the other. It is unclear which direction they will go this time.
The only thing we know for sure is that swing states will change that. Anyway.
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