Iran’s Presidential Elections Approach, Three-Way Race ExpectedIran’s Presidential Elections Approach, Three-Way Race Expected Iran is gearing up for snap presidential elections on Friday, where a three-way race is anticipated to head into a runoff. Several surveys have predicted different outcomes, although they all agree that a runoff is likely. Call for High Turnout Authorities hope for a higher voter turnout to legitimize the election, as previous elections have had record low participation. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged the country to maximize voter turnout to thwart enemies. Candidates in the Race Five of the six approved candidates, mostly hardliners or conservatives, are competing in the election. Vice president Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi withdrew, urging others to do the same to unify support. Tehran Mayor Ali Alireza Zakani and former minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi are not considered major contenders. Survey Predictions Surveys vary in their predictions. Iran’s Student Polling Agency (ISPA) forecasts a turnout of over 50% with Jalili leading, followed by Pezeshkian and Qalibaf. Meta predicts a similar turnout with Pezeshkian in the lead. The ‘privately run’ Shenaakht survey foresees Qalibaf as the frontrunner. Key Factors Close ties to Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC background could benefit Jalili and Qalibaf. Reformist candidate Pezeshkian may struggle unless there is a high turnout in his favor, and his ethnic background and recent statements could affect his chances. Limited Changes Expected Regardless of the winner, radical policy shifts are unlikely, as the president is subordinate to the Supreme Leader who has the final say in policy decisions.
New Delhi, June 27 With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect late President Ebrahim Raisi’s successor, a three-way race – heading to a runoff – is likely, as several surveys show, even as differences they consider the positioning of the top three candidates.
Meanwhile, authorities are hoping for a larger “legitimizing” turnout, given the record low voting percentage in the 2021 elections and the parliamentary elections earlier this year.
Turnout in the 2021 elections – which Raisi won – was 48.8 percent – the lowest yet since the 1979 revolution. It fell further in the two rounds of the Majles elections in March and May this year to about 41 percent. Part of the voters’ disillusionment has to do with social and economic issues and the blocking of many reformers. Outsiders such as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, excluded from the presidential race, also do not pass the screening.
The predictions of the likely turnout, according to the surveys and analyses, depend on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. While those from expatriates, who do not have the best relations with the current Iranian dispensation, claim that a much lower turnout would be registered this time, those from groups in the country, related to government institutions, are more optimistic and report a slight increase. upwards.
However, they also do not predict a radical outbreak.
It was perhaps with this in mind that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies” on Tuesday.
“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic to overcome its enemies is the elections. If there is a good turnout in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his speech at a religious meeting.
A day before the election, five of the six approved candidates, classified as four hardliners/conservatives, of varying intensity and reformist, entered the race. As in previous examples, one of the hardline candidates – vice president and head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi – dropped out and urged others to do so to consolidate support under one strong (hardline) candidate bundling.
However, Hashemi, whose withdrawal was announced on the eve of the elections, made no mention of a candidate choice.
The other two – Tehran Mayor Ali Alireza Zakani and Celeriac and former minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi – do not figure much in the calculation.
However, according to reports, the surveys rate the chances of the top three very differently.
Iran’s Student Polling Agency (ISPA), which is affiliated with the government’s Academic Center for Education, Research and Culture, predicted a turnout of more than 50 percent in a survey published last Wednesday, with Jalili on the comes first, and Pezeshkian second – less than a percentage point ahead of Qalibaf.
However, Monday’s update left Pezeshkian now ahead of Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf remained in third place.
In both cases, none of the leading candidates even reached the 30 percent mark, indicating a runoff.
Meta, a polling organization based at Tehran’s Imam Sadeq University, had predicted a turnout of just over 50 percent in its survey published last week, with Pezeshkian leading – but above Qalibaf, while Jalili was in third place.
An update this week had the same positioning, but with lower numbers for the candidates. It was also stated that Qalibaf would defeat Pezeshkian in a run-off, and if the run-off was Qalibaf versus Jalili, the former would also be victorious.
A survey by the ‘privately run’ Shenaakht, released mid-month, predicted a turnout of more than 50 percent, with Qalibaf at the top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili finishing in second place – more than 10 percentage points behind.
While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their close ties to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favor with their establishment, the only reformist candidate Pezeshkian, whose presence seems aimed at luring reformist voters to higher votes, could find it difficult unless there is a huge turnout in his favor.
However, his ethnic background, namely Azeri, could cloud his chances. And then his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and broader outreach to the West drew veiled criticism from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those who believed that “all good comes from the US.” The other two are more hopeful of BRICS and SCO.
Pezeshkian also deviated from the consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
But whoever wins, a radical change in domestic and foreign policy is unlikely, since the president is only the second in command. And then it is the Supreme Leader who also certifies the winner.
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