Governor Newsom’s ‘mischaracterized’ jobs statistics – good enough for government work? – California Globe

Earlier in June, the Globe reported that California has lost nearly 10,000 fast-food jobs since the new $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers was first signed into law late last year, according to the California Business and Industrial Alliance (CABIA).

CABIA cited data and a report from the Hoover Institute at Stanford University.

This article apparently did not sit well with the governor’s office. We received an email from Brandon Richards (he/him), deputy director of communications in Governor Gavin Newsom’s office, requesting a correction and claiming that the state has created jobs since the minimum wage of $20 per hour for fast food.

Brandon claimed:

“According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, California has added jobs in limited-service restaurants (fast food) both since Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 1228 the FAST Recovery Act in September 2023 and since the new $20 minimum wage for fast food workers went into effect on April 1, 2024.

The data used by the trade group is from August/September 2023 to January 2024 (an incomplete and inaccurate use of the data) – omitting data from the months of February, March and April – all of which increased.”

Brandon is not letting it go; he continues to email us, as well as several other media outlets who also reported on the job losses.

On Thursday, Brandon pointed an accusing finger at the Globe and posted the same message on X/Twitter to the Globe, Redstate, Post Millennial, The Federalist and Rupert Murdoch, among others:

@CaliforniaGlobeDoes your outlet continue to supply water to an exposed trade group looking to boost its profits instead of reporting the data that shows the law has created more jobs and improved the lives of everyday, hard-working Californians?

Before we could address this hot mess of inconsistencies, California Policy Center President Will Swaim challenged Governor Newsom/Brandon’s tweets:

There’s only one problem here, Gavin: the @latimes mixed up the data. You sent reporter Michael Hiltzik 2023 data to show that fast food employment is going up. The pay increase happened on April 1, 2024. That’s not even math. That’s just being able to read a calendar. @GovPressOffice

Swaim continued with the following, in which he aptly indicated who was actually carrying the water:

The @latimes‘ Michael Hiltzik is one of the worst reporters in California, and he proves it again here: he cites data from last year to prove that fast food employment has increased this year, despite @GavinNewsom‘s raise. His numbers aren’t fake, just the wrong year. It could happen to anyone named Michael Hiltzik. @GovPressOffice

Lance Christensen, vice president of the California Policy Center and Swaim’s colleague, responded:

“Will, stop harassing Newsom with misrepresented statistics. What he produced is good enough for government work. Besides, no one reads the LA Times anymore.”

The Globe spoke with Rebekah Paxton on Friday morning about the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, for clarification.

“Yesterday they put out a press release claiming that the California fast food industry has been adding more every month this year,” Paxton said.The reality is that California more than 2,500 fast food customers lost jobs since January 2024, when looking at seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data is the most accurate, best real-time data available because it takes into account normal variations such as seasonal hiring peaks in summer and December.”

Paxton, who has an academic degree from Boston University in economics and political science, is the research director at the Employment Policies Institute. She had this to say about Newsom’s misleading statement:

“Newsom stretches the truth to obscure the obvious: His fast-food minimum wage hike has been a disaster. Thousands of workers have lost their jobs, hours are being cut, and restaurants are closing at an alarming rate. The public will not be misled by Newsom’s statistical spin.”

Month	Amount of jobs	Change in jobs
January 2024	742,326	1,050
February 2024	741,822	-503
March 2024	739,792	-2,031
April 2024	739,850	59
May 2024	739,804	-46

If we use January 2024 instead of January 2023, there will indeed be a loss of more than 2,500 jobs in that five-month period.

Paxton told the Globe that the real job losses began the day the Legislature passed the $20 minimum wage increase bill, which would explain why the Hoover Institution has compiled the 10,000 job losses in the fast-food sector.

Paxton said Governor Newsom must decide which data set to use. “He just has to choose one and stick to it.”

She also said that if we look at the annual growth rate each May, it is the lowest since the Great Recession, and without Covid would have been the lowest since 2010.

“The real story is the story of losses for business owners, operators and job losses for workers,” Paxton said. “Governor Newsom doesn’t seem to express any concern for the owners or the workers.”

She’s right. Gov. Newsom and his staff, including Brandon, are cherry-picking numbers and months to serve Newsom’s own false narrative.

Paxton said the nonseasonal data and the seasonally adjusted data are the same data set — the same numbers. “The BLS puts out the jobs reports and then comes back with normal seasonal trends and seasonal hiring to figure out the real changes that are affected by the cycles.”

Worse still, she said, the real concerns of business owners and workers are being drowned out.

“California is the blueprint for this kind of thing,” Paxton said. “We’re already seeing other states looking at the higher minimum wage,” which would be a disaster.

This is why we see posts like this on social media: “Don’t Californicate the rest of the country” and “Don’t Gavin Newsom America.”

Will Swaim continued this:

Sources @LATimes says a reporter who is now apparently preparing an “update” (“not a correction”) to show that seasonally adjusted figures from the Federal Reserve show that 2,500 jobs have been lost in the fast-food sector since @GavinNewsomThe wage increase law came into effect on April 1.