Pirates vs. Braves prediction, odds, picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves on Sunday at Truist Park. We’re here to share our MLB odds series, make a Pirates-Braves prediction and picks as we show you how to watch.

Pirates-Braves expected starters

Bailey Falter vs Spencer Schwellenbach

Bailey Falter (3-6) with an ERA of 4.00

Last start: Falter faltered (pun intended) in his last start, allowing five runs, four of them earned, on five hits in a loss to the Cincinnati Reds.

Road Split 2024: Falter has fared slightly worse on the road, going 1-4 with a 4.65 ERA over eight starts away from PNC Park.

Spencer Schellenbach (1-3) with an ERA of 5.40

Last Start: Schwellenbach pitched five innings while allowing four earned runs on eight hits and striking out six in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.

2024 Home Splits: Schwellenbach is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA over two starts at Truist Park.

Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

MLB Odds: Pirates-Braves Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-142)

Moneyline: +150

Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+118)

Moneyline: -178

Above: 9.5 (-110)

Bottom: 9.5 (-110)

How Pirates vs. Braves to watch

Time: 11:35 AM ET/8:35 AM PT

TV: Bally Sports South East

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why the Pirates Will Cover the Spread/Win

The Pirates have struggled on offense but are still in contention for a wild-card spot, trailing the last spot by 2 1/2 games. But after struggling to hit the ball for the second straight game against the Braves, their problems were on full display Saturday in Atlanta. If the Pirates want to make the playoffs, they need to improve their offense.

The offense ranks 26th in batting average and on-base percentage. Additionally, Pittsburgh ranks 24th in runs and home runs and 28th in slugging percentage. The batters haven’t done enough to get on base or drive runners home.

The Pirates stranded seven runners on Friday. Then they stranded eight runners on Saturday. Andrew McCutchen is not the player he once was. Unfortunately, he continued to struggle against Atlanta, striking out three times. Bryan Reynolds has his history behind him, with 13 home runs, 46 RBIs and 35 runs this season. Ultimately, those numbers put him on pace for 26 home runs, 92 RBIs and 70 runs. But that’s not enough for the Pirates to thrive.

Guys like Connor Joe and Ke’Bryan Hayes need to step up. But Joe has fluctuated between .238 and .250 the last few seasons and isn’t an ideal No. 3 hitter. Meanwhile, Hayes has struggled compared to last season. After hitting .271 with 15 homers, 61 RBIs and 65 runs last season, he’s now hitting just .227 with three homers, 19 RBIs and 24 runs in 57 games.

Falter leads a rotation that ranks seventh in baseball in team ERA. Unfortunately, he’ll likely have to hand it over to a bullpen that ranks fourth in baseball in team ERA.

The Pirates will cover the spread if Joe, Hayes and Reynolds can drive runners across the plate, but they’ll need good pitching from Falyet and the bullpen to stay intact.

Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Profit

The Braves have had many setbacks, including a season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna. Yet they have remained steady and currently hold the top wildcard position in the National League. The Braves need to stay productive and have the players who can do that.

Matt Olson has remained productive this season and had a run on Friday. Now expect him to continue playing baseball to help the Braves move forward. Austin Riley isn’t doing as well as last season. Still, he hit a home run on Friday and remains efficient at the plate. Marcell Ozuna was among the elite this season, hitting .301 with 21 home runs, 67 RBIs and 47 runs. As such, expect him to continue pounding the baseball.

Schwellenbach will lead a rotation that is 10th in baseball. He will then turn it over to a bullpen that is the fourth best in baseball. The pitching remains strong and has already had a strong start in this series.

The Braves will cover the spread if their hitters can hit the baseball, and they’ll need a good outing from Schwellenbach.

Latest Pirates-Braves prediction and pick

The Pirates could face the Braves in the wild-card round. But to get there, they’ll need some offensive prowess. While this starting pitcher isn’t as impressive as the others, Pittsburgh doesn’t have the star power to beat him. Expect the Braves to drive some runners across the plate and build a big lead before they finish the Pirates off for a win Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

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Pirates-Braves Final Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+118)