This has always been a difficult question.
The Liberal victory in the ACT election required an enthusiastic mood for change across the territory to make gains in almost every electorate.
Instead, it seemed like a collective shrug.
To the extent that voters were dissatisfied with the long-term Labor government, it still failed to persuade them to switch over and elect the Liberals.
The result is further confirmation of how different Canberra is from the rest of the country, having just elected a seven-year government, something that would be almost impossible in any other jurisdiction.
This is a reality that the Liberals must face soon to avoid forming an eight-year government.
The mood is becoming more and more joyful
Andrew Barr and his husband arrive at HQ shortly after it was revealed that Labor would take power.
As the night wore on, the mood at Labor HQ changed from neutral to cheerful to jubilant.
Though they may not have admitted it, there was certainly a nagging anxiety among Labor workers that the time had indeed come.
She wasn’t re-elected in a landslide result, but the party appears to have “kept its base,” as one activist put it.
As long as this remains the case, changing the government may prove difficult.
ACT As the evening progressed, the Labor faithful became more and more excited. (ABC News: Jostin Basta)
However, behind the victory there was some disappointment.
The outcome is uncertain but Police Minister Mick Gentleman is fighting hard to retain his seat in Brindabella.
The party also hoped to win a third seat in Ginninderra, but this did not happen.
While Labor will return to the government benches in the Assembly, it has some lessons to learn in its seventh term.
The result may indicate that Tuggeranong is different
Initially, liberals were hopeful, but as the evening progressed, the mood changed. (ABC News: Jade Toomey)
When the first wave of votes came in and showed a strong swing towards the opposition in Brindabella, I suspect the blood started to flow in the Liberal seat.
However, this result was not achieved in any other electorate and at the end of the evening at least two candidates left the function in tears.
For the liberals to win, the attack in the deep south had to be repeated almost throughout the city.
Tuggeranong people often like to portray themselves as fundamentally different from the rest of Canberra, often forgotten or left behind.
This result may be further evidence of this belief.
Just as a federal election cannot be won in any state, a Liberal victory in the ACT requires more support north of Lake Burley Griffin.
The Liberals failed to improve their position despite being led by someone who brought the party closer to the political center.
The party will do some soul-searching to see why voters in Canberra’s north still don’t like it.
The Greens lose two ministers
Green Party Leader and ACT Attorney General Shane Rattenbury and Chief Minister Andrew Barr outside the North Ainslie Primary School polling station on ACT Election Day. (ABC News: Lottie Twyford)
Despite starting the campaign with the suggestion that Shane Rattenbury could become First Minister, the Greens appear to have lost half their seats.
Privately, Green Party sources have always argued that this result is within the realm of possibility, albeit at the lower end of the scale.
This necessarily raises the question of why the party raised expectations so publicly in the first place.
The greatest resistance to the Greens came from two of its ministers: Rebecca Vassarotti and Emma Davidson.
With only three seats currently compared to Labour’s likely 10, their potential influence on the next government is likely to be more limited than it has been over the past four years.
It is doubtful that anyone other than Shane Rattenbury will be invited back to the cabinet.
That is, if he decides to continue in the role at all.
Historical development of independents
Thomas Emerson is awaiting results earlier this evening. (ABC News: Saskia Mabin)
Talking to voters throughout Election Day, I got the impression that the two independent candidates were most enthusiastic; Fiona Carrick in Murrumbidgee and Thomas Emerson in Kurrajong.
Both were elected by large numbers of personal votes, and in the case of Thomas Emerson, even outperformed the Green leader.
This is a historic result that now raises questions about what kind of members they will be.
It has been a long time since ACT elected an independent member and the role they want to play in the Assembly will become clearer in the coming weeks and months.
It may not have been the time of the Liberals, but the election of two independent representatives showed that it was possible to have representatives from outside the Green Party.
Unfortunately for liberals, there weren’t enough of them this time.
However, if the opposition uses the next four years to continue working to reconnect with the electorate, there is no reason why this cannot be achieved in 2028.
If 23 years was considered an “eternal government”, how will we describe it after 27 years?
