Biden’s Re-election Campaign Hampered by Trump Assassination AttemptBiden’s Re-election Campaign Hampered by Trump Assassination Attempt Context: President Joe Biden had been gaining momentum in his re-election campaign before the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Biden’s Response: Biden initially intended to highlight Trump’s behavior and second-term plans, but the shooting forced him to pivot to a unifying message and condemn political violence. Challenges for Biden: – The focus on the shooting has stifled Biden’s efforts to make his case against Trump. – Biden faces pressure to balance his message without appearing insensitive. Impact on the Race: – The shooting likely rallies Republican voters and donors behind Trump. – Biden trails Trump in polls, and needs to reassess his strategy. – Republican criticism blames Biden’s rhetoric for motivating the shooter, but his supporters point to his call for unity. GOP Criticism: – Republicans have made unsubstantiated claims blaming Biden for the shooting. – Biden’s campaign manager condemns the politicization of the tragedy. Long-Term Consequences: – The shooting may galvanize Trump’s base and boost his chances in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. – Some analysts believe Biden’s message of strengthening social safety nets could resonate with voters. – The impact of the shooting on the race remains uncertain, as similar events have had minimal impact on polls in the past.
President Joe Biden had just begun to turn the tables on his re-election campaign when the attempt to kill Donald Trump robbed him of his most powerful weapon: drawing attention to his opponent’s behavior and his plans for a second term.
Biden has been dogged by doubts about his mental fitness and pressure to step aside, but fought back Friday with an energetic speech in Detroit in which he vowed to put Trump “in the spotlight.” He said he wanted to keep pushing that argument right through Election Day in November.
About 24 hours later, and some 200 miles away, shots rang out at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. It was the chilling culmination of an era in American politics defined by radical views and incendiary rhetoric.
Biden’s beleaguered campaign now faces limitations on how it can move forward. The eruption of political violence is hampering his efforts to make his case. It also threatens to undermine a core premise of his presidency — that he would restore decency and normalcy to national politics.
Instead, the president hopes a unifying message in a time of crisis will resonate with voters. Biden announced he would deliver a rare speech in the Oval Office at 8 p.m. local time. He plans to call on Americans to come together to end political violence, a campaign official said.
“There is no place in America for this kind of violence,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Sunday. “Unity is the most elusive goal of all, but nothing is more important than that right now.”
The intense focus on the attempted assassination does offer Biden some respite from the conversation that has dominated headlines for weeks: whether he should withdraw after his disastrous debate. One Democratic donor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they previously believed the party would be best served by replacing Biden, but that now would be impossible without adding to a sense of chaos.
It appears the shooting — and Trump’s iconic, bloody, fist-pumping response — will help rally voters and donors behind the Republican candidate.
Business leaders Elon Musk and Bill Ackman, who previously refused to endorse the former president, released public statements supporting Trump within minutes of his attack.
It will be days or weeks before polls are released assessing the aftermath. But former President Ronald Reagan saw a substantial increase in support when he was shot and wounded in 1981. Many presidential historians say that attack cemented his standing in the conservative movement.
Biden, on the other hand, needs to find a balance between how he moves forward without appearing insensitive.
The president plans to reiterate his condemnation of violence in politics in a prime-time interview with NBC News on Monday, after which his political operation will again pivot to drawing contrasts between Biden’s and Trump’s views, the campaign official said. Biden will not shy away from talking about the stakes of the election, and his campaign sees the tragedy in Pennsylvania as a reinforcement of his central campaign thesis, the official added.
The president expressed his condolences to Trump on Sunday and promised a “thorough and expeditious” federal investigation, a Secret Service review of security measures and an independent investigation into the shooting, which he promised to make public for the American people.
Biden urged people not to make “assumptions” about the “motives or ties of the shooter” and called on the public to “let the FBI do their job, let their partner agencies do their job.”
With Election Day less than four months away, Biden urgently needs to rethink his position. He trails Trump by nearly 3 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Figures on both sides of the political spectrum have called on leaders to rise above the political fray and try to heal the national divide. The shooting confirmed the fears of half of swing-state voters, who said in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll in May that they were worried about violence surrounding the election.
The president’s campaign already said it would pause messaging and TV ads. Biden postponed a speech Monday in Austin to mark the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act. His campaign canceled an event Monday that countered the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Vice President Kamala Harris postponed political travel originally scheduled for Tuesday in Florida, a campaign official said.
Biden won’t be off the road for long. He plans to travel to Las Vegas to speak to Black and Latino advocacy groups on Tuesday and Wednesday and to sit for another interview with BET, the White House said.
Republican criticism
While law enforcement officials and Trump himself have not given a motive to the shooter, some Republicans have already made unsubstantiated claims blaming Biden for motivating the would-be killer.
“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, a potential Trump running mate, posted on X. “That rhetoric led directly to the attempted assassination of President Trump.”
Supporters of the president pointed to his call for unity after the shooting. Biden said he had a “short but good” conversation with Trump.
Biden’s campaign manager condemned the criticism from some Republican lawmakers, calling the politicization of the tragedy an unacceptable abdication of leadership.
Still, the failed assassination attempt shifts the dynamics of the race in Trump’s favor.
It’s a remarkable twist of fate for Trump, who has glorified violence throughout his political career. In 2016, he urged rallies to “beat up” protesters, and on Jan. 6, 2021, just before they stormed the U.S. Capitol, he told his supporters to “fight like the devil.”
“Biden’s inevitable ritual condemnation of political violence today (when it comes) will be insufficient and irrelevant,” said Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran against Trump in the 2024 Republican Party primaries.
Challenging images
Republican pollster Frank Luntz said the shooting guarantees that “every Trump voter will actually vote,” while Biden can’t count on that certainty. The biggest impact is likely to be in the battleground state of Pennsylvania — a must-win for Biden — because that’s where the shooting happened, he said.
“The long and winding road for Joe Biden just got longer and windier,” Luntz posted on X. “The shooting of Donald Trump will have major consequences in ways the shooter never intended.”
With Trump dominating the national debate, there is little Biden can do in the short term to spread his anti-Trump message, heal divisions among Democrats or shift the dynamics of the race in a way that will assuage skeptics.
“This should help Donald Trump, at least for a while, with independents,” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “Those images of a defiant Donald Trump with blood on his face and his fist in the air are better advertising than anything money can buy.”
Others urged caution in exaggerating the moment’s impact, pointing to minimal shifts in polls after other seismic events, including Biden’s debate disaster and Trump’s conviction in the New York hush-money trial.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, a progressive supporter, expressed confidence in Biden’s chances as long as he focuses on his second-term plans to strengthen the social safety net, slash drug prices and expand workers’ rights.
“If he keeps talking about that, I think he’ll get re-elected,” Sanders said on NBC’s Meet the Press.
