What If Joe Mauer Had Come Up in Today’s MLB?What If Joe Mauer Had Come Up in Today’s MLB? Joe Mauer’s career in the MLB is etched into the minds of Twins fans. But what if his draft trajectory had been different? Let’s envision that instead of being drafted in 2001, he was chosen in 2021 as a high school catcher. With the emphasis on modern analytics and pursuit of home runs in today’s Twins organization, it’s likely that Mauer’s approach would have been altered. They might have aimed to transform him into a power hitter, exploiting his height and power potential. While it’s possible that Mauer could have adapted his swing for increased home runs, it’s debatable whether that version would have been more valuable. His career MVP season in 2009 showcased both his power (28 homers) and exceptional batting average (.365). However, a shift to a more power-oriented approach might have compromised his ability to get on base and hit from all fields. Ultimately, it’s impossible to say definitively what would have happened. The Twins could have experimented with various tweaks to Mauer’s approach, but without the three batting titles, his Hall of Fame induction might have been less likely. Despite these hypothetical considerations, one thing remains clear: the original Joe Mauer, who became a first-ballot Cooperstown inductee, was an exceptional talent who left an indelible mark on the Twins and the sport of baseball.
The details of Joe Mauer’s career are so deeply ingrained in the collective consciousness of Twins fans that it’s hard to imagine any other story.
But let’s try it anyway.
Let’s assume Mauer wasn’t drafted in 2001, but in, say, 2021, as a high school catcher out of Cretin-Derham Hall. Imagine if he had the same sweet swing that yielded just one (!) strikeout in his entire prep career.
And now let’s imagine how the modern Twins organization, with its greater emphasis on modern analytics and the pursuit of home runs instead of singles, would have handled Mauer’s development.
Would they have tried to make Mauer a power hitter, and what would the results have been if they had done so?
Patrick Reusse and I talked about this during a broader discussion about Mauer on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast.
Here are some more extensive thoughts on this idea:
*There is a lot more tinkering with players (hitters or pitchers) today than there was a generation ago. That fact alone makes it more likely that the Twins would be more inclined to change Mauer’s approach in 2021 than they were in 2001.
*Mauer’s frame (6-5, 225 as listed by Baseball Reference) suggests a player who might have more power. And he hit 28 homers in 2009, even though that season proved to be an outlier in many ways. Mauer has never hit more than 13 in any other MLB season, and in 2009, a whopping 20.4% of his fly balls were homers (he’s never hit more than 12.8% in any other full season).
*But Mauer certainly hit the ball hard enough and had impeccable bat control for the first 10 years of his career. I think it would have been possible for a modern-day Mauer — at the urging of a Twins organization and a sport in general that is more homer-oriented than the Twins of the 2000s — to alter his swing to pull more balls into the air for homers. It would have contradicted his true approach, which is to hit the ball to all fields, but Mauer was talented enough to pull it off.
*Given all this, it seems at least plausible that if Mauer had come along 20 years later, he might have had to become a different kind of hitter.
*Would that version of Mauer have been more valuable than the one that actually existed? It’s instructive to note that his career high in homers coincided with his one MVP season in 2009. But he also hit an otherworldly, career-high .365 that year. With a different approach, Mauer could have had a steady stream of years hitting around .300 and, say, 25 to 30 homers. He probably would have had more strikeouts (he had more career walks than strikeouts until late in his career), but his OPS probably would have been higher.
*Part of what made Mauer so great was his ability to get on base, combined with his ability to get a hit from any part of the field against any type of pitcher. It’s debatable whether a modern, tinkered version of Mauer would have been more valuable to the Twins. But without the three batting titles, he almost certainly wouldn’t have been inducted into the Hall of Fame on Sunday.
Ultimately, the Twins (and fans) couldn’t have asked for much more from a No. 1 overall pick out of St. Paul who became a first-ballot inductee into Cooperstown. But it would be fascinating to see how things might play out differently today.
Here are four more things you need to know today:
*Jets QB Aaron Rodgers tried to downplay missing this summer’s minicamp with the Jets by comparing it to other weeks of offseason training. He has a point, but he also seems to be trying (again) to turn something from perception into fact.
*Rob Dillingham had a great Summer League finals for the Wolves, and you guys can be glad I don’t have the courage to write a post wondering how many real NBA games the elite Summer Wolves could win next season.
*Sunday was a day with a lot of news, but it was made just as funny.
https://x.com/RandBall/status/1815109042186170653
*Jon Marthaler is scheduled to be on my podcast Tuesday reporting on Minnesota United. I’ll also share my thoughts on Monday’s press conferences with Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
