Understanding PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action): Insights for Smarter BettingUnderstanding PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action): Insights for Smarter Betting Introduction Pressing and off-the-ball tactics play a significant role in modern football, with teams using them to regain possession quickly and limit their opponents’ time on the ball. PPDA (passes per defensive action) is a metric that measures the intensity of a team’s pressing, providing valuable insights for bettors. What is PPDA? PPDA stands for “passes per defensive action.” It is calculated by dividing the number of passes made by the attacking team outside the pressing team’s defensive third by the number of defensive actions performed by the pressing team outside their defensive third. A lower PPDA indicates more intensive pressing, while a higher PPDA indicates less aggressive pressing. How is PPDA Measured? Defensive actions include tackles, interceptions, challenges (failed tackles), and fouls. How to Access PPDA Data PPDA data is freely available on the Opta Analyst website. How PPDA Can Inform Betting Fouls Committed Teams with lower PPDA ratings tend to commit more fouls, as they take more defensive actions. Identifying teams with high PPDA and advanced position players can be valuable when betting on player fouls. Team Possession and PPDA There is a correlation between teams with low PPDA and low possession. This information can be used in conjunction with possession data to better understand teams’ defensive strategies. What is a Good PPDA? There is no “right” PPDA rating. Different teams have different objectives and styles of play. However, lower PPDA ratings generally indicate more intense pressing. Conclusion Understanding PPDA can provide bettors with valuable insights into team pressing strategies and player behavior. By incorporating PPDA data into their analysis, bettors can make more informed wagering decisions.
Pressing and out-of-ball tactics have become a much more nuanced part of football in the last decade, with the top teams in the game able to use them to their advantage, winning back the ball in attacking areas and reducing the time they spend without the ball.
In this article, we’ll delve into the metric that measures pressure, PPDA. We’ll explain what it means, how it’s measured, and most importantly, how knowing more about it can help you bet smarter.
What does PPDA mean?
PPDA stands for passes per defensive action.
PPDA is the number of opponent passes allowed outside the pressing team’s own defensive third divided by the number of pressing team’s defensive actions outside their own defensive third. A lower number indicates a higher level of pressing, while a higher number indicates a lower level of pressing.
Opta
The ‘defensive actions’ used in the calculation are tackles, interceptions, challenges (failed tackles) and fouls.
The team that presses the most has the lowest PPDA rating. Tottenham Hotspur had the lowest PPDA rating in the Premier League last season at 8.8. This means that their opponents made an average of 8.8 passes per period of possession (outside Spurs’ defensive third) before turning the ball over.
What is the purpose of PPDA?
PPDA tells us which teams are more likely to harass their opponents when they don’t have the ball, and which teams are more likely to sit back and let their opponent keep the ball.
The highest PPDA figure in the 2023/24 Premier League season was recorded by Nottingham Forest at 17.7, as they allowed more than double the number of passes per out-of-possession sequence (outside their own defensive third) than Tottenham did throughout the season.
This metric gives us insight into what we can visually expect from a Spurs or Forest football match, even if we only saw them for the first time towards the end of the season.
The equation is: the number of passes made by the attacking team (the team in possession of the ball) divided by the number of defensive actions.
How do I access PPDA?
PPDA is freely accessible via the Opta Analyst website, alongside other statistical sources.
What is the connection between PPDA and gambling?
Making mistakes
Of the top ten players who committed the most fouls in the Premier League last season, five were attackers for a team ranked in the top six in PPDA.
Teams with a lower PPDA score will take more defensive actions and will therefore find themselves in more situations where they will foul an opponent than teams with a high PPDA.
This insight is incredibly valuable when considering betting on a player to commit a foul. Even if they haven’t committed a foul in recent performances, there’s a good chance that an advanced position player playing for a team with a very low PPDA rating will take up positions during a game to make defensive plays that will eventually result in fouls.
There is a clear correlation between the teams with the highest PPDA and the lowest average possession. There are some outliers, but the relationship between the two is clear to see. Below are the 2023/24 Premier League teams, filtered by average possession.
And here are last season’s Premier League teams ranked by PPDA.
The bottom two are Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest for both stats. Everton, West Ham United and Crystal Palace are at the bottom of both stats, with Fulham being more of an outlier. But what does this tell us?
PPDA in combination with average ball possession can provide more insight into foul betting than just looking at average ball possession.
PPDA shows which teams are more often on the bench when they don’t have the ball. Average possession doesn’t give any insight into this.
For example, if you look at average possession alone, Bournemouth, seventh lowest in average possession, would look like a team that lets the opposition have the ball. However, they are fifth for PPDA and they went on to comfortably commit more fouls than any other team in the Premier League last season – 507 at 13.3 per game. 0.8 fouls per game more than any other team, a highly significant difference across a sample of 38 games.
What is a good PPDA?
There is no right way to win a soccer match or to field a team. Therefore, it is important to not consider the teams with the lowest PPDA rating as necessarily the strongest teams in that league/competition.
For example, in the 2023/24 Premier League, Manchester City had the ninth lowest PPDA figure, were around mid-table in terms of statistics and still won the title.
City had the most turnovers in the league (416). A high turnover is when a team wins possession of the ball in open play within 40 yards of the opposition goal, according to Opta. They also had the most turnovers in the league that resulted in a goal being scored (13). Therefore, it’s fair to say that City were the most successful team in pressing last season, but they weren’t the most intense in terms of PPDA.
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